$CPC, the CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio is slowly advancing. $CPC is a sentiment indicator showing the Put volume relative to the Call volume. It is increasing when more Puts are trading than Call options. This means that investors are expecting a bearish development in the future. Also notice below the chart that the correlation coefficient to the S&P 500 index is -.20 and turning up. Normally the 20-period correlation coefficient is less than -.50.
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The chart below shows the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for $CPCE, the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio. There is also the 200-day Bollinger Band with the 0.6 standard deviation bands. The S&P 500 index, $SPX is in the background for refernce. The chart starts in 2004. As you can see the 50-day moving average pretty much stays in the 0.6 standard deviation Bollinger Bands around the 200-day moving average. Notice how the 200-day moving average is moving lower and lower soon reaching low levels only mached in 2006 and 2011 on the chart. Also notice that the 50-day moving average is touching the lower Bollinger Band. In the past touching the lower band was followed by a sharp move higher.
The chart below shows $CPC, the total Put/Call ratio with the 10-day moving average. When $CPC is moving higher investors are buying more puts than calls and they have bearish bias. $CPC is a sentiment indicator and is mostly negatively correlated to the S&P 500 as you can see below the chart. $SPX, the S&P 500 index is in the background.
This ratio is a sentiment indicator. The two funds are tide to the daily performance of the S&P 500. The Nova Fund gains value if the S&P 500 gains value And the Ursa Fund gains value when the S&P 500 declines. SPY is shown below the Nova/Ursa ration chart. The close correlation is clearly visible.
The Put/Call Ratio is simply the Put Volume divided by the Call Volume:
Put/Call Ratio = Put Volume / Call Volume The Put/Call Ratio can be calculated for individual securities or a large number of stocks or indexes or both. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has three popular Put/Call Ratios, the $CPCE is the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the $CPCI is the Index Put/Call Ratio and the $CPC is the Total Put/Call Ratio. The Total Put/Call Ratio often moves above and below the 1.0 horizontal line. Depending on market conditions the range of the Put/Call Ratio can change over time. Investors are buying more puts to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Calls are purchased to bet on market advance. When investors are extremely bullish the Put/Call Ratio reaches low levels and when they are extremely bearish it reaches high levels. In this sense the Put/Call Ratio can be used as a sentiment indicator. It also can be used as a contrarian indicator. Extreme low levels on the Put/Call Ratio could be a sign of possible market decline and extreme high levels of Put/Call Ratio could be a sign of possible bullish reversal. Currently $CPC, the Total Put/Call Ratio is on low level if we compare it to other lowest levels this year. This could be the sign of a short term bearish reversal. See the chart below with the 10-day and 200-day SMA and with $SPX in the background. There is also a 1.0 horizontal line. The Correlation Coefficient shows that for the most part the correlation between $CPC and the S&P 500 is negative. What the Fear & Greed Index is telling us? Click here for the source.
Not according the chart below. Insider buy amount is turning down. Notice that the faster moving average is below the slower moving average.
The chart below shows the daily chart for $VIX, the volatility index with the Aroon indicator below the chart. Aroon-Up (green) is in the 70-100 range and Aroon-Down (red) is below 50. This tells us that $VIX is in an uptrend. That's is bearish for the Market.
As you can see on the chart below the insider buy activity has been decreasing. Notice the peak in mid-November.
Yes, it looks like. $VIX moved up over 43%. If you trade $VIX serious money can be made (sometimes). Not recommended to inexperienced traders.
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